Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority

Statement Bulletin

Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook and Water Safety message issued April 13, 2018

issued  Friday, April 13, 2018

Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook and Water Safety message was issued at Friday, April 13, 2018 at 11:00 a.m. by Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA).

Approaching weather system brings potential of more than 75 millimetres (mm) of rainfall and risk of flooding.

An approaching low-pressure system is expected to move across the watershed area this evening (Friday, April 13, 2018) and overnight. The weather system will be slow-moving, bringing with it the potential for a mix of heavy rain and freezing rain over the next three days. Rainfall totals over the weekend are expected to be in the range of 70-80 millimetres (mm).  The exact track of the system in not known at this time, but it is expected that the majority of the precipitation will fall as rain. Temperatures will determine the duration and amount of freezing rain

It is expected that the heaviest rain this weekend will come in waves, beginning with a brief period of heavy rain this evening, followed by heavier rains Saturday morning. Rain or a mix of ice pellets and freezing rain will last through much of the day Saturday. The next wave of rain is expected early Sunday morning and it carries with it the risk for significant amounts of freezing rain, before returning to heavy rains Sunday afternoon.  Heavy precipitation is expected through the day Sunday and into early Monday morning.

The rate of runoff and the extent of flooding will be determined largely by rainfall and temperature patterns over the next several days. Based on the current weather and stream forecasts, major flooding is not anticipated at this time and flooding impacts will be limited to traditional low-lying flood plain areas.   

Stream flows in the larger rivers will not peak until later in the day Monday, and will remain high through the rest of the week.  

Residents are reminded to stay away from all watercourses. The extremely cold and fast-moving water, slippery and unstable stream banks, combined with the current forecast, will create additional hazardous conditions near all waterways.

This message will remain in effect until 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday, April 18, 2018, unless local conditions warrant further updates.  The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.

Types of Flood Messages:

Watershed Conditions Statement (Flood Outlook/Water Safety): General watershed conditions suggest high runoff potential that could lead to flooding and remind the public of general river safety issues.

Flood Watch: Flooding is possible in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities, emergency services, landowners in flood-prone areas should prepare.

Flood Warning: Flooding is imminent or already occurring in specific watercourses or municipalities. Municipalities and individuals should take action to deal with flood conditions. This may include road closures and evacuations.

 
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